Definition
Max % drop from the last peak to the next trough. Measured as a percentage of the prior peak.
Why it matters
It determines whether you abandon the strategy. Most capitulate between −20% and −30%.
How it's controlled
Diversification, volatility guardrails and regime-based reallocation.
Formula and example
drawdown_t = (value_t / max(value_0..t)) − 1
If your portfolio is worth 100, rises to 130, then falls to 100, current drawdown is (100/130) − 1 = −23.1%. Max drawdown for the window is the minimum of all those values.
Historical drawdowns compared
S&P 500 vs balanced portfolio (60/40 + guardrails) across the last 3 major drawdowns.
| Period | S&P 500 | 60/40 + guardrails |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 (financial crisis) | −56.8% | −24.5% |
| 2020 (Covid) | −33.9% | −12.1% |
| 2022 (inflation + rates) | −25.4% | −17.8% |
Approximate figures for educational purposes. Balanced portfolio includes bond exposure and regime reallocation.
How to choose your tolerable drawdown
- Long horizon (>10 years): you can tolerate −30% to −40% if you don't need the money. Global equities, 80/20 allocation.
- Mid horizon (5–10 years): target −15% to −25%. Balanced 60/40 with tactical reallocation.
- Short horizon (<5 years): target −5% to −12%. Short bonds, gold, cash; minimal equities.
Frequently asked questions
What is maximum drawdown?
It's the largest percentage decline from a peak to the next trough in the value of a portfolio or strategy. It measures the worst cumulative loss you would have suffered if you entered at the worst moment.
How is it computed?
At each time step: drawdown = (current value / prior max) - 1. Maximum drawdown is the minimum across all drawdowns in the analysis window.
What drawdown level is tolerable?
It depends on horizon and profile. 100% equity portfolios typically see -30% to -55% in crises. Balanced portfolios using UCITS ETFs with guardrails contain worst case between -15% and -25%.
Why does it matter more than annual return?
Because it psychologically determines whether you abandon the strategy. A 12% CAGR with -45% drawdown is unsustainable for most investors. An 8% CAGR with -15% max is sustainable.
How does LearnAImarkets control it?
With volatility guardrails (VIX), walk-forward validation, and reallocation across Core12 UCITS ETFs by regime. Goal: contain drawdowns without sacrificing risk-adjusted return.
See how the model manages risk
The public backtest shows historical drawdown of the strategy with guardrails active.
This content is educational. Not investment advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns.
Sigue aprendiendo
Guías relacionadas para profundizar en señales, métricas y validación.
BULL, BEAR y NEUTRAL: guía de señales
Cómo el modelo decide cada señal y cuándo aparece NEUTRAL.
Leer guíaWalk-forward validation: evita el sobreajuste
Por qué es más robusta que un backtest clásico.
Leer guíaETFs UCITS para inversores europeos
Costes, ISIN, domicilio, divisa y papel en carteras EUR.
Leer guía