 | WEEKLY 2026-10-02 |
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Hi — the week in review: here's how the model moved. Week consensus BULLISH Day 33 in a row in BULLISH | 47% Confidence |
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The model maintains its stance even as overall enthusiasm continues to gradually lose steam. What changed Overall confidence dropped by 7.6 percentage points compared to yesterday. What would invalidate this read If general confidence persistently drops below the 55% threshold. |
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What the model got right and wrong 4 of 4 directional signals were right the next day. ✓ | 2026-09-28 · BULLISH · +0.89% |
✓ | 2026-09-29 · BULLISH · +0.33% |
✓ | 2026-09-30 · BULLISH · +0.47% |
✓ | 2026-10-01 · BULLISH · +0.79% |
Hit = the day's signal matched the portfolio return on the next market day. |
Week summary Last 5 days: dominant regime BULL, 0 regime changes, average confidence 54%. |
Market view This week saw equities grind higher despite retail enthusiasm gradually losing steam across the board. Our model managed a solid +2.50% return, driven by steady core allocations in SXR8.DE and EQQQ.MI alongside a defensive position in 4GLD.DE. However, confidence took a notable hit on Friday, sliding down to 47% as momentum showed clear signs of fatigue. With the VIX resting calmly at 16.4, the market isn't panicking, but underlying conviction is undeniably thinning. The model maintains its bullish stance for now, though this week's erosion in confidence warrants a closer eye on risk. Watch next Next week, pay close attention to whether general confidence can recover above the 55% invalidation threshold. Any persistent drift lower from here will likely force the model to reconsider its current posture. |
Model positioning Mode Neutral | Exposure 100.0% (live) |
Current cash: 0.0% VIX 16.4 · Risk-off 3
Model behavior this week We are maintaining our fully invested 100% live portfolio allocation, anchored by our existing top holdings. Given the drop in model confidence, there is no need to aggressively add new capital right now. Instead, focus on monitoring our downside thresholds closely as market sentiment shifts. These figures reflect model behavior, not personalized investment advice. |
Concept of the week Portfolio Rebalances Rebalances occur when a strategy adjusts its asset weights, which often increases trading activity during calm periods like today's low VIX of 16.4. How the model uses it: The model systematically executes these adjustments when target allocations drift, maintaining disciplined alignment with the current bull signal. ⚠️ Common mistake: Excessive rebalancing can quickly erode returns through accumulated transaction costs. ❓ Question to reflect on: Does the portfolio only trade when rules dictate, rather than reacting to daily noise? Previous concept recap (Core12): The 12 ETFs LearnAImarkets uses: global equities, bonds, gold, factors, and sectors. Explore in glossary → |
See you at the next signal, — The LearnAImarkets team |
Educational content about AI model behavior. Not financial advice or a recommended investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. LearnAImarkets |
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