Week consensus

The model remains in a bullish regime with solid conviction.

What changed

No material change versus the previous close.

Weekly breakdown

6 days · 6 bullish · 0 bearish

View signal history →

What the model got right and wrong

2 of 4 directional signals were right the next day.

Hit = the day's signal matched the portfolio return on the next market day.

Week summary

Last 6 days: dominant regime BULL, 0 regime changes, average confidence 59%.

Market view

Equities experienced a quiet week with the model return dipping slightly by 0.38%, though the underlying technical structure remains resilient. Our quantitative model held firmly in a bullish regime throughout all six trading sessions, with confidence stabilizing at 63% by Friday's close after hovering in the high-fifties earlier in the week. This steady posture was supported by a calm market environment, reflected in the VIX holding near 17.8. With no material shifts in our core indicators, the live portfolio remains fully invested at 100.0%, anchored by a 38.4% allocation in EQQQ.MI and a 29.3% position in IS3R.DE alongside our gold hedge.

Watch next

Next week, we will monitor whether conviction levels can break out of the 55-63% range as macro catalysts emerge. We also keep a close eye on the VIX; any sudden spike above 20 would serve as an early warning for potential trend exhaustion.

Model positioning

Current cash: 0.0%

VIX 17.8 · Risk-off 3

Model behavior this week

Maintain your current exposure in line with the model's fully invested stance, as there are no signals warranting a defensive cash build. Keep a strict watch on the invalidation threshold, which requires a flip to neutral or bear alongside confidence dropping below 55% on consecutive closes before taking risk-off steps.

These figures reflect model behavior, not personalized investment advice.

Concept of the week

Average True Range (ATR)

ATR measures the average daily price movement, which helps estimate risk while the VIX sits calmly at 17.8.

How the model uses it: The model utilizes ATR to size positions and adjust trailing stops based on current market volatility.

⚠️ Common mistake: Using ATR to predict the direction of a price breakout often leads to false signals.

❓ Question to reflect on: Does the position size account for the asset's typical daily trading range?

Previous concept recap (Volatility): How much prices go up and down. High volatility = big changes, low = small changes.

See you at the next signal,

— The LearnAImarkets team

Educational content about AI model behavior. Not financial advice or a recommended investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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