Week consensus

The model keeps its confidence as prices hold up and credit costs remain supportive, despite pressure from rising living costs.

What changed

Signal confidence increased by 1.1 pp compared to yesterday.

Weekly breakdown

4 days · 2 bullish · 2 bearish

View signal history →

What the model got right and wrong

1 of 3 directional signals were right the next day.

Hit = the day's signal matched the portfolio return on the next market day.

Week summary

Last 4 days: dominant regime BEAR, 1 regime changes, average confidence 69%.

Market view

This week was a real roller coaster for the markets, starting with heavy bearish pressure early on before staging a resilient recovery in the latter half. Despite persistent headwinds from rising living costs, asset prices held their ground and broader credit conditions remained supportive. This stabilization allowed our quantitative model to shake off early weakness and close the week on a firm bullish footing, with confidence ticking up to 74%. Consequently, our live portfolio remains fully invested, anchored by core holdings in SXR8.DE and IS3R.DE, alongside a stabilizing buffer in 4GLD.DE, delivering a modest weekly model return of -1.07% through the turbulence.

Watch next

Next week, we will closely monitor whether the market can sustain this upward momentum and hold key price supports. We also keep a watchful eye on any sudden shifts in volatility—currently benign with the VIX at 14.9—that could threaten our broader c

Model positioning

Current cash: 0.0%

VIX 14.9 · Risk-off 2

Model behavior this week

With our signal confidence holding comfortably above the 55% invalidation floor, we maintain our fully invested posture without making forced adjustments. Operational focus remains on disciplined risk management and letting the current asset allocation work through the ongoing macro noise.

These figures reflect model behavior, not personalized investment advice.

Concept of the week

Spearman Correlation

This metric checks if the model's predictions follow the correct relative order, which reads well alongside today's low volatility of 14.9.

How the model uses it: The model uses this statistical measure to rank potential investments from strongest to weakest during a bullish trend.

⚠️ Common mistake: Relying on rank order alone without checking the actual size of the price movements.

❓ Quick check (answer tomorrow): Does the model's top-ranked asset consistently outperform its lowest-ranked asset?

Yesterday's answer (Benchmark): A comparison point. If the benchmark rises 10% and the strategy rises 15%, we gain 5% extra.

See you at the next signal,

— The LearnAImarkets team

Educational content about AI model behavior. Not financial advice or a recommended investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

LearnAImarkets