Data as of 22 October 2026
US yield curve today
Today in context
History since 2007
Weekly close (last data point of each week). Statistics use every trading day.
What is the yield curve?
It plots the yield of government bonds by maturity. Normally lending for longer pays more, so the curve slopes upward and the 10-year minus 2-year spread is positive. The 2-year yield closely follows expectations for central bank rates; the 10-year also reflects growth and inflation expectations.
Why inversion gets attention
When the 2-year yields more than the 10-year, the curve is inverted. In the United States, inversions came before the 2001 and 2008 recessions and the 2020 one, with delays of six months to two years. The 2022–2024 inversion was the longest in decades, and the recession that many expected did not arrive in that period.
What it does not tell you
It is not a date or a probability. The lag between inversion and recession has varied a lot, there have been false signals, and the curve says nothing direct about European markets or about what a particular ETF will do.
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Frequently asked questions
Is the yield curve inverted today?
The status at the top of this page is updated with each trading day's data. The curve counts as inverted when the 10-year minus 2-year spread is below zero.
How long did the last inversion last?
In this series it ran from July 2022 to September 2024, more than two years: the longest on record for this spread.
Does an inverted curve mean a recession is coming?
Historically it has often preceded US recessions, with variable delays and some false signals. It is a description of the bond market, not a forecast.
Why 10-year minus 2-year and not another spread?
It is the most widely quoted. Others, such as 10-year minus 3-month, are also followed and usually tell a similar story, though not always on the same dates.
Source: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y), FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.